Defending West Philippine Sea: The abyss separating Duterte, Marcos

MANILA, Philippines — Over 90 percent of Filipinos distrust China, according to results of a survey last year by OCTA Research.

Whether Filipinos are satisfied with the way the government is handling China’s aggression in Philippine waters, however, paints a different picture.

Satisfaction rating with the way the government is “defending our sovereignty in the West Philippine Sea” under the Duterte and Marcos administrations has remained the same although the approach by the two leaders is starkly different.

READ: When words, actions speak loud: Duterte’s honeymoon with China

 

For most of his six-year rule, Rodrigo Duterte had avoided confronting, even appeasing, China. His successor, Ferdinand Marcos Jr. took a tougher stance.

A Social Weather Stations (SWS) survey on satisfaction with the administration on specific issues conducted on Dec. 12 to 18, 2024 showed that 58 percent of Filipinos is satisfied with the way the government is addressing China’s intrusion in the West Philippine Sea, almost the same as the 54 percent that Duterte got in a survey on Dec. 13 to 16, 2019.

Why?

Chester Cabalza, president of the think tank International Development and Security Cooperation, explained that Duterte’s high satisfaction shone “in his strategic ambiguity and calmer relations with China that minimized ‘gray zone’ attacks from China Coast Guard (CCG) despite Beijing’s insistence of total ownership in the South China Sea, including the West Philippine Sea.”

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Based on data from SWS, satisfaction was at 66 percent in September 2016, but while this covered the period when the Philippines won the arbitral award against China, satisfaction with the administration’s handling of the issue went as high as 68 percent in June 2017 before sinking to a record low 47 percent in June 2018 and rising to 58 percent in September 2018.

This, even when in 2018, a survey by the SWS indicated that 81 percent of Filipinos believe that “it is not right to do nothing about China’s intrusion in claimed territories” and that 73 percent stress that “it is alright for the Philippines and China to have direct, bilateral negotiations.”

Some 80 percent said they want the military, especially the Philippine Navy, to be strengthened.

Back then, trust in China was “bad” at -35 percent.

RELATED STORY: SWS: Filipinos’ trust in China dives from ‘neutral’ to ‘poor’

 

For Don McLain Gill, a geopolitical analyst and international relations instructor at the De La Salle University, “you always have to acknowledge the aspect of perception when it comes to Duterte’s strongman and populist figure,” which is something that has contributed to a lesser understanding of the existential threat posed by the “expansionist” China.

The previous administration filed over 350 diplomatic protests in six years, but most of it were only filed in the last two years of Duterte, who likened the Philippines legal win against China in the West Philippine Sea as a worthless piece of paper.

READ: Why do China, Duterte descriptions of arbitral ruling look the same?

 

“They filed a case, we won. That paper, in real life, between nations, that paper is nothing,” Duterte said.

Change in direction

Gill explained that Filipinos already recognized as early as 2018 that China could now be trusted, but it was “not elevated to a national level,” especially because of how Duterte was handling the conflict between the Philippines and China over the West Philippine Sea.

He had said the arbitral decision was “meaningless” and that “we can retake [West Philippine Sea] only by force.”

READ: West PH Sea: When diplomatic protests vs China fail

 

This is why how President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. is addressing the issue with a “tell-all” strategy is really significant, with Gill pointing out that it is an “important unifying factor among Filipinos toward understanding of the existential threat posed by an expansionist China and the challenges that come with it, and how these are not just a new development but something that was neglected, especially in the past administration.”

READ: Is China a threat to the Philippines?

 

For Cabalza, Marcos’ pivot away from how Duterte handled the issue “eased public trust on how we value the West Philippine Sea,” saying that “this has paved a way to return on the table and strengthen our military alliance with Washington that has supported us in our defense upgrade, territorial defense strategy, and believe in our self-reliant defense posture.”

Based on a survey by OCTA Research, 91 percent of Filipinos distrust China as of March 2024, with 52 percent saying that they have no trust at all and 39 percent saying they do not have much trust. The 91 percent is a bit higher than the 90 percent in December and way higher than the 61 percent distrust rating in February 2022, a few months before the end of Duterte’s six-year presidency.

Likewise, 76 percent of Filipinos see China as the biggest threat to the Philippines.

Gill said while it is natural for Filipinos to care about what is happening in the West Philippine Sea, opposition to China’s aggression was “channelized in the Marcos Jr. administration, so rather than going against the grain, we see the convergence between the government, civil societies, and the public.”

READ: West Philippine Sea coral kills: Making China pay

 

He said “this is very significant and needs to be cemented.”

However, Cabalza pointed out that while the administration’s “tell-all” strategy on China’s expansionism is working, “it has to evolve to dwell on a new strategy,” saying that the government has to strive for a “multi-aligned defense policy,” with its military networks growing with like-minded powers and its alliance with the United States renewed to greater heights.

“In the next three years, it has to sit down and increase diplomacy with Beijing to resolve the big puzzle in our territorial dispute with China,” he said.

READ: China’s West Philippine Sea gray zone tactics: It’s still war

 

Based on a survey by OCTA Research, 84 percent of Filipinos support the government’s way of protecting the West Philippine Sea, with the highest level of support observed in Class D at 84 percent and Class E at 83 percent.

Awareness of the issue is likewise widespread, with 91 percent saying that they are aware of the issue between the Philippines and China.

 

(2025/04/10-09:54)