60 days to determine Paetongtarn’s future as political power struggle intensifies

Paetongtarn Shinawatra’s fate hangs in the balance as the Constitutional Court rules on her suspension, marking a pivotal 60 days ahead for Thailand's political landscape.

The political game in Thailand is set for high-stakes manoeuvring in the next 60 days. Thaksin Shinawatra and the Pheu Thai Party must hold onto power as their rivals aggressively seek to seize it.

Paetongtarn Shinawatra's government is on life support, with the Hun Sen audio clip scandal becoming a critical blow that has given the conservative factions the opportunity to strike at Thaksin and Pheu Thai.

On July 1, the Constitutional Court ruled 7-2 to suspend Paetongtarn from her duties as Prime Minister, sending her into political limbo. Her future now hinges on the court’s upcoming decisions, with her fate possibly mirroring that of former PM Srettha Thavisin, who was removed by the court over the controversial appointment of a minister in 2024.The 60-day countdown for Paetongtarn’s case began on July 1. The court has given her until July 16 to respond to the allegations in the form of a written defence, with the option to request an extension until July 31. Once the defence is submitted, the petitioners (36 senators) have 15 days to counter Paetongtarn’s explanation. On August 16, the senators must submit their rebuttal, which will then be reviewed by the court. The entire process is expected to take 45 to 60 days.

The political future of Paetongtarn lies entirely in the hands of the Constitutional Court. While Thaksin and Pheu Thai hope that surviving this crisis will restore public confidence, the outcome remains uncertain. Historically, the Shinawatra family has often faced negative rulings from the Constitutional Court, with only Thaksin himself managing to avoid conviction in the shareholding case in 2001.Past examples show that the court has removed previous Thai prime ministers from office. Samak Sundaravej was dismissed for accepting television hosting fees in 2008, while Somchai Wongsawat was ousted after the dissolution of the People’s Power Party. Yingluck Shinawatra was also removed in 2017 due to a controversial transfer of a national security official. Now, Paetongtarn’s fate may follow in these footsteps, as her case faces intense scrutiny.

In times of uncertainty, Thaksin and Pheu Thai must prepare backup plans. The timely appearance of Chaikasem Nitisiri, Pheu Thai's prime ministerial candidate, playing golf, signals his readiness to step into the role of Prime Minister if a political accident occurs with Paetongtarn.

When asked by the press about his readiness to become Prime Minister, Chaikasem responded, “If necessary, I’m ready because there’s nothing to it. But I hope it’s not necessary, let the younger generation take on the role. But if it’s for the country, I’m ready and can do it without any problems.”

Chaikasem’s signal is no coincidence. Intelligence sources indicate that Pheu Thai’s “bigwigs” are encouraging him to make a move, as staying silent might play into the hands of the "blue network" hoping to replace the Prime Minister.

Before the court's ruling on Paetongtarn’s case, Thaksin and Pheu Thai must evaluate their chances of success and failure. They also need to check the support within their coalition partners. If the coalition holds firm, the vote for Chaikasem to become Prime Minister should face no obstacles, and the process will proceed swiftly.

Alternatively, if the "coalition partners" do not meet expectations and fail to provide enough support for Chaikasem, the chances of Thaksin and Pheu Thai shifting towards a House dissolution strategy will increase significantly.

The political game from here on will involve intense manoeuvring at every step. Thaksin and Pheu Thai must hold onto power while their rivals and enemies push forward with their own plans to seize power.

(2025/07/03-00:00)