Tariff alarm as Thailand enters US trade surplus top 10

Economist warns new tariffs under Trump could shrink Thai economy by up to 0.5% while hitting baht

A leading economist has urged Thailand to prepare for new US tariffs after the kingdom entered the top 10 countries with the largest trade deficits with the US in 2024.

Kasikorn Research Center (KResearch) reported on Thursday that data from January to November last year revealed Thailand enjoyed a trade surplus with the US worth $41.5 billion. As a result, Thailand rose from 12th position in 2023 to 10th place among the countries with the highest trade surplus with the US.

China remains in top position with a surplus of $270.4 billion, followed by Mexico at $157.2 billion, and Vietnam at $113.1 billion.



The US has already announced 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico, while slapping 10% on imports from China. Thai Commerce Minister Pichai Naripthaphan flew to the US last week for talks on trade tariffs. The US is Thailand’s largest export market, with an export value of $54.95 billion (1.84 trillion baht) in 2024, accounting for 18% of total Thai exports.

 Burin Adulwattana, chief economist at KResearch, urged the Thai government to prepare measures to combat the Trump administration’s impending trade rebalance, particularly in sectors targeted for reshoring, such as the automotive, computer, and electrical appliance industries.

He said that to ease trade tensions, Thailand may need to consider increasing US imports such as energy, soybeans, and corn.

Higher tariffs under Trump could shrink Thailand’s GDP by around 0.5% while leading to baht depreciation, he predicted.

The US trade and tariff measures should become clearer from April 1, he said.

"Thailand should also address domestic economic issues, reduce dependence on trade with any single country, and maintain a neutral stance between global powers,” Burin added.

(2025/02/07-00:00)